Dollar followed as the second strongest, mainly due to weakness elsewhere. The dollar is at risk of downside the expectations of 2 or even 3 excursions in 2017 have begun to shift from reality slightly below expectations of data releases. New Zealand dollar followed as the second weakest on RBNZ dovish expectations.
As last Tuesday, traders had reduced net long exposure on DXY to a low 6 weeks. They have become less bullish on the USD recently. In the absence of economic data, however, they focused on the federal reserve of political leaders who give speeches in recent days, which will continue with two others today.
The dollar index (DXY) seems to have completed Wave 3 of Wave III, so after a modest rally we should resume the downward trend. The US dollar index (DXY) is backing out a bit after hitting a new cycle high, but the down-move could turn out to be short-lived if the growing trend support has something to say about it. He had a difficult week, quickly reversing the rebound over the last two weeks. He swapped out the last few sessions, but he’s coming down on the support that could put a plan here soon. On the crude oil stocks Thursday, building permits and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index are released. A correlation strengthening between the US dollar index and currency volatility combined with the recent swoop in FXVIX suggests the pain could be upfront for USD price action. US Treasury yields on freefall, 30-year yield hit the new historical low In addition to this, the US yield curve reversal last week worsened, as triggered by the fear of the global slowdown and internal recession.
Today it is higher rally, but as long as it remains under yesterday’s high of 14344 on a closing basis, I wait to weaken a little from here. Next week, with the aforementioned events in the euro zone and the United States, it will be crucial. The next week could be crucial for the greenback as it focuses on the Jackson Hole speech of the Fed president Jerome Powell and FOMC minutes. Next week brings a vacation to the United States with Thanksgiving on Thursday. The following day is Black Friday ‘, which means that many US markets will only be open for half the day and probably a certain number of traders or market makers will be in attendance that holiday rest day. A lower break is seen as likely to have the low at 10925 coming up quickly. Stay below the trendline above and 10847 and USDJPY seems ready to trade neutral to negative.
If there is no hint of thinning, the euro is bound to increase. Although a look at the charts would give us a picture of some decent volatility in the EURUSD pair over the past week, but it must be said that most of the volatility came towards the end of the week when most traders had been lulled into the sleep or had just packed his bags and left for the week. On top of that, comments from ECB officials indicated nothing short of the ECB to start preparing the markets for a reduction in its extraordinary easing measures.